Why This Time is Different: The North Korea Crisis and New Zealand’s Interests

Author: Steff, R.
Published in National Security Journal, 09 April 2020


1 Congressional Research Service, North Korea: U.S. Relations, Nuclear Diplomacy, and Internal Situation, 27 July 2018. Available at https://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R41259.pdf

2 See comments on North Korea in: New Zealand Government, Strategic Defence Policy Statement 2018, 6 July 2018. Available at: https://www.defence.govt.nz/publications/publication/strategic-defence-policy-statement-2018; New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Strategic Intentions 2018-2022, p.2. Available at: https://www.mfat.govt.nz/assets/MFAT-Corporate-publications/MFAT-Strategic-Intentions-2018-2022.pdf

3 This draws from ideas in Gregory D. Foster, ‘Transforming US National Security: A Call for Strategic Idealism’, Defense & Security Analysis, 26:2 (2002), pp.129–42.

4 Michael Richardson, “Planned New Zealand Defence Cuts Worry Troubled Region,” International Herald Tribune News, 17 February 2001. Available at: http://www.iht.com/articles/2001/02/17/ zeal.2.t.php

5 New Zealand Government, Strategic Defence Policy Statement 2018.

6 Ibid, 21

7 Ibid, 27

8 New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Strategic Intentions 2018-2022.

9 For a consideration of the costs of conflict on the Korean peninsula, see John Fetter, “North Korea: The Costs of War, Calculated.” Available at: https://ips-dc.org/north-korea-costs-war-calculated/

10 Reuben Steff and Francesca Dodd-Parr, “Examining the Immanent Dilemma of Small States in the Asia-Pacific: The Strategic Triangle between New Zealand, the US and China,” The Pacific Review (January 2018), pp. 1-23.

11 US Ambassasor to New Zealand, Scott Brown, has made this case. See “North Korea poses ‘direct danger’ to NZ, US ambassador Scott Brown warns,” New Zealand Herald, 2 October 2017. Available at: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11928626

12 “North Korea threatens Australia with disaster if it continues to support US stance on Pyong- yang,” 15 October 2017, ABC/Reuters. Available at: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-15/north-korea-warns-australia-face-disaster-continues-support-us/9051156; “N. Korea berates Australia for hostile moves, warns of disaster,” The Korea Times, 14 October 2017. Available at: http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2018/06/103_237658.html

13 Andrew Duver, “Dairy: June Quarter 2019,” 4 November 2019. Available at: https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/agricultural-commodities/jun-2019/dairy; “Fonterra keeping eye on Ukraine,” Radio New Zealand. Available at: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/rural/255439/fonterra-keeping- eye-on-ukraine

14 “New Zealand-Russia FTA: Another BRIIC in the wall,” 16 November 2010, New Zealand Institute of Economic Research. Available at: https://nzier.org.nz/publication/new-zealand-russia-fta-another-briic-in-the-wall-nzier-insight-21

15 Tanisha M. Fazal, “State Death in the International System,” International Organization, 58(2) (Spring 2004), pp. 311-344.16 Slight alterations have been made to the map by this article’s author.

17 Bruce Cumings, The Korean War: A History (New York: Modern Library, 2013).

18 Zenel Garcia, China’s Military Modernization, Japan’s Normalization and the South China Sea Territorial Disputes (Palgrave Pivot, 2019); also see Asian Military Review. Available at: https://asianmilitaryreview.com/category/regions/east-asia/south-korea/

19 Jonathan D. Pollack, No Exit: North Korea, Nuclear Weapons and International Security (Adelphi Series) (London: IISS, 2011), p. 44.

20 Ibid, p. 50.

21 Pollack, No Exit, p. 57.

22 Cheng Xiaohe, “The Evolution of Sino-North Korean Relations in the 1960s,” Asian Perspective, 34(2) (2010), pp. 173-99, 190-92.

23 Victor Cha and David Kang, Nuclear North Korea (New York: Columbia University Press, 2003), p. 149.

24 Cited in Van Jackson, Rival Reputations: Coercion and Credibility in U.S.-North Korea Relations (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2016), p. 151.

25 Jeffrey R. Smith, “Perry Sharply Warns North Korea,” Washington Post, 31 March 1994.