Why This Time is Different: The North Korea Crisis and New Zealand’s Interests

Author: Steff, R.
Published in National Security Journal, 09 April 2020

45 As former Secretary of Defense William Perry recently stated, “this is not a crazy regime; it is an evil regime, it is a reckless regime, but it’s not crazy. They are oriented almost entirely around regime survival.” Barbara Demick, “Former Defense Secretary On Why We Didn’t Go To War With North Korea,” Los Angeles Times, 14 April 2017.

46 Khoo and Steff, Security at a Price, p. 97.

47 Scott Sagan writes that rational theory is a poor basis for predicting state behaviour since “nuclear weapons are not controlled by states, they are not controlled by statesmen. They are managed by imperfect, normal human beings inside imperfect, normal organizations.” Amitai Etzioni, “Rational Actors: Neither Mad nor M.A.D.: The Meanings of Rationality, Rogue States and Terrorists,” Defense & Security Analysis, 26(4), pp. 43-38. Quote cited on p. 435.

48 “North Korean Missile Launches & Nuclear Tests,” Missilethreat.com.

49 Gerald F. Seib, Jay Solomon and Carol E. Lee, “Barack Obama Warns Donald Trump on North Korea Threat,” Wall Street Journal, 22 November 2016. Available at: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ trump-faces-north-korean-challenge-1479855286

50 Tillerson was categorical: “Let me be clear: the policy of strategic patience has ended. We are exploring a new range of security and diplomatic measures.” Justin McCurry, “Military Action against North Korea ‘An Option,’ Warns Rex Tillerson,” Guardian, 17 March, 2017.

51 Justin McCurry, “Mike Pence Warns North Korea: ‘Era of Strategic Patience is Over’”, Guardian, 16 April, 2017; Charlie Campbell, “President Trump Says China Could ‘Easily’ Rein in North Korea,” Time, 9 November 2017. Available at: http://time.com/5016617/donald-trump-china-north-korea-2/

52 Quoted in Julian Borger, “Donald Trump: I’d Be Honored to Meet Kim Jong-Un Under ‘Right Circumstances’”, Guardian, 1 May 2017.

53 Thomas Christensen, “The Contemporary Security Dilemma: Deterring A Taiwan Conflict,” Washington Quarterly, 25(4) (2002), pp 5-21, p. 10.

54 Andrew Buncombe, “Donald Trump’s explosive UN speech: Read it in full,” The Independent, 19 September 2017. Available at: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump- un-speech-read-in-full-transcript-north-korea-general-assembly-a7956041.html

55 Christine Kim and Soyoung Kim, “North Korea’s Kim says will make ‘deranged’ Trump pay dearly for U.N. speech,” 22 September 2017. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-statement/north-koreas-kim-says-will-make-deranged-trump-pay-dearly-for-u-n-speech-idUSKCN1BW32D

56 “Joint Statement of President Donald J. Trump of the United States of America and Chairman Kim Jong Un of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea at the Singapore Summit,” White House, 12 June 2018. Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-president-donald-j-trump-united-states-america-chairman-kim-jong-un-democratic-peoples-republic-korea-singapore-summit/

57 “Chronology of U.S.-North Korean Nuclear and Missile Diplomacy,” Arms Control Association, July 2019. Available at: https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/dprkchron

58 Ibid.

59 Rodger Baker, “Here’s What’s Actually Different About the Latest North Korea Talks,” STRATFOR, 5 April 2018. Available at:
https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/heres-whats-actually-different-about-latest-north-korea-talks

60 Ibid.

61 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America, Department of Defense, January 2018. Available at: https://dod.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2018-National-Defense-Strategy-Summary.pdf; National Security Strategy of the United States of America, White House, December 2017. Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf

62 Anne-Marie, Slaughter, The Chessboard and the Web: Strategies of Connection in a Networked World (London, England: Yale University Press, 2017).

63 “The Asia-Pacific Power Balance: Beyond the US–China Narrative,” Chatham House (Royal Institute of International Affairs), 27 September 2015. Available at: https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/asia-pacific-power-balance-beyond-us-china-narrative

64 Ethan Meick and Nargiza Salidjanova, “China’s Response to U.S.-South Korean Missile Defense System Deployment and its Implications,” U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 26 July 2017. Available at: https://www.uscc.gov/research/chinas-response-us-south-korean-missile-defense-system-deployment-and-its-implications; Christine Kim and Ben Blanchard, “China, South Korea agree to mend ties after THAAD standoff,” 31 October 2017, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles/china-south-korea-agree-to-mend-ties-after-thaad-stand%ADoff-idUSKBN1D003G